How scenario-based strategy empowers organisations to thrive in uncertainty

Scenario-based strategy is really helpful for preparing your organisation for moments when decisions are required, which are high in stakes and therefore need to be accurate, but also happen at a time when you need to respond quickly.

We don’t want to rely on luck when circumstances suddenly change. Ideally, we want to be able to execute a rehearsed and thought-through response that we know will give us the results that we desire.

But how do we make sure that these strategic responses are at our fingertips when impactful decisions are required? How do we equip ourselves with a toolbox of strategic responses that serve us immediately but also fit with our long-term goals?

Well. A bit of preparation is required. 

Why traditional tools like SWOT often fall short

In my previous employment, the framework of choice was SWOT.  People would think of a pet project they wanted to pursue and justify it by looking at the company’s strengths and weaknesses, often overemphasising the opportunity and many times not properly considering external threats unless they were directly linked to the pet project being promoted at the time.

SWOT is a quick and easy tool, but it oversimplifies the strategic situation and allows data to be twisted out of shape or cherry-picked.

Worse still, if SWOT is used without a project in mind, it inevitably leads to lists of attributes that have no clear path forward for action. 

The method proposed here is completely different.  It starts by accepting that we don’t have all the data.  In truth, nobody does.  Not you, not the CEO, not the competition.

But.  Bringing together people with different perspectives allows you to gather a wider range data and avoids likely blind spots.

So, since we have to start somewhere, I always suggest to either look from the problem out.  Or do the opposite and look from the highest vantage point towards your company and your situation. 

Since we are trying to prepare ourselves for unknown situations looking outside in is preferred.

The PESTEL framework allows you to do exactly that.  It’s like looking at the world from the international space station and saying “Hey, look at this planet down there, what’s going on?”

The value of environmental scanning and PESTEL

Ok, so PESTEL isn’t flawless.  Nothing in strategy is, but it is a great starting point. 

PESTEL attempts to give a holistic view of the world by making you collate all information into buckets: political, economic, social, technological, environmental and regulatory.

You might find some of these buckets are more important than others, but just having them there to think will eliminate huge gaps.  Get everyone on your team to contribute to creating a list of the most important issues that are relevant to you.

This step should be easy, because everyone, really everyone, has a view and feel of the world around them, and hence can contribute.

You will be surprised at the nuanced data some people will be able to contribute. As a result the worldview of your organisation might be quite different from that of your competition, and that’s fine. In fact, it’s exactly what you want.  You want to develop a strategy that suits your organisation perfectly.  And would be copycats – maybe your competition – should look like a fraud when they attempt to copy you.

I also think looking at mega-trends reports that large consulting firms create can be of immense value.  That’s because they are written with a firm eye on the future. And that’s what you want to do.  Train your employees to think about what is coming next.  As the old saying goes, where attention goes action flows.  Make your employees attention move from the here and now to the possibilities, opportunities, and preparations for the future.

Lessons from the Nokia and Ericsson case

In the video, I talk about the lightning strike and its dire consequences for Ericsson. I briefly mention the part that corporate culture plays in decision-making. 

Nokia at the time had an open strategy approach, meaning they sought input from many stakeholders like employees, customers and partners when making strategic decisions and plans.

But, Nokia’s initial success eventually led to failure.  And maybe this is a warning that wiping out a known enemy leaves a space.  And where there is a space in business it will be filled. Apple did that and eliminated Nokia in the process. 

Companies need to continuously adapt to the changing landscape, and that’s precisely where a robust strategy process involving many perspectives can help.

Moving from trends to actionable strategy: the power of scenario planning

Having identified key trends and organising them into themes is the starting point of such a strategy process.  Extracting the salient information out of complex circumstances is extremely useful.

But remember, we are not just simply trying to understand the current situation, we are also trying to anticipate the future and that is where storytelling becomes my method of choice.

When we hear a story, more parts of the brain are activated than simply looking at facts alone.  In particular, areas related to emotions and sensing become engaged.  This triggers empathy for our customers and co-workers and might make even opponents soften their stance and allow other viewpoints to be considered.

When we hear stories that resonate, it leads to the release of dopamine and that, in turn, makes our strategic scenarios, which are based on these stories, more memorable and relatable.  

Stories allow us to internalise concepts and create a collective vision of the future – or even several possible visions of the future. 

Because a team will develop and experience these stories together they will develop collective resilience through repeatedly activated brain pathways, making the team more prepared for real-world applications.  It is like a mental rehearsal for situations that may arrive.  Or they might not.  Or most likely they will arrive a slight variation, but still be recognisable as being part of a theme.  

A shift from reactive to proactive strategy

I mentioned earlier how useless a SWOT analysis can be for strategic decision-making.  But a simple enhancement to SWOT using the same data can create for better actionable insights.  The TOWS analysis doe exactly that.  Rather than listing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, it asks: given your one chose strength, how would you use it to take advantage of one single opportunity. You then move on to the next strength and the next opportunity.  And after you move on to weaknesses. 

The best strategies arise from combining strengths and opportunities.  And the most serious attacker advantages can be exposed by looking at strategies which look at your weaknesses in relation to threats. 

TOWS is a neat little tool that allows you to create a grid of “mini strategies” (S/O, W/O, S/T, W/T).  But data in isolation, creates the problem of having too many options in the end that are too shallow.

An alternative that I present in the video is to use the scenarios that arise from the storytelling exercise mentioned above. 

In the final step of my proposed method, you use scenarios that are rich in context and have been mentally digested by the team. Now in a modified TOWS analysis you ask: if this scenario was to arise, how would we leverage our  strengths, or how would a weakness play out in each of the scenarios. 

The beauty of the modified TOWS is that it has lots of nuance.  This in turn allows your employees to come up with ideas about how best to leverage each scenario with strengths they possess.  It might also make weaknesses either acceptable or so mentally painful, that action will be sought quicker. 

Of course not all scenarios will play out.  However, having played through possible scenarios in the mind, employees will not only be quicker in finding a solution should it be required, they will also have a shortcut in their communication

The role of story-telling in strategy

Incorporating storytelling into your strategic planning process isn’t just about making meetings more engaging—it’s about rewiring how your team thinks, acts, and aligns with your organization's vision.

The science is clear: stories activate more of the brain, foster empathy, and create vivid, shared mental models. By building scenarios through storytelling, you not only make complex strategies more relatable but also prepare your employees to act with agility and confidence when challenges arise.

Just as Nokia’s success hinged on its ability to anticipate and adapt through an inclusive, scenario-based approach, your organization can achieve resilience by embracing the power of narratives. By involving employees in this process, you give them the agency to think beyond immediate obstacles and seize underexplored opportunities.

This collective mindset ensures that when faced with uncertainty, your team won’t just react—they will respond strategically.

Remember, strategy is more than a plan. It is the story you and your team tell about the future you are building together. When you harness the neuroscience of storytelling, you transform strategy from an abstract exercise into a living, breathing journey—one that everyone in your organization can see, feel, and contribute to.